Cribbage strategy

Cribbage strategy introduction

Cribbage strategy is a key part of playing and winning cribbage. Merely knowing the cribbage rules is not enough to play well. Here are some hints on cribbage strategy which should keep you out of the worst of trouble until you have started to get the hang of things.

Leading strategy

If in doubt, lead a 4. This is the highest card on which the opponent cannot immediately make 15. Lower cards are best kept for later.
Remember that ten-cards in cribbage far outnumber any others in the pack. Thus, your opponent is quite likely to have one or more 10s. Consequently, do not lead a 5, or make 21. Naturally enough, 10s are often accompanied by 5s. Beware of making 26.
Conversely, making 11 is generally a good move, providing of course you hold the necessary ten-card to follow up your opponent's.

When to lead a 5

Top cribbage player Bob Milk writes that leading a 5 can be a good cribbage strategy in the following situation:

I am holding a 5 and three 10-value cards and I need one more point to win than I am holding. Example, I am holding 5-10-10-J and any card is cut that does not increase the value of the hand. I am stuck with 8 points. I need 9 points to go out my opponent needs 4 or more points to win (they are in hole 117 or less). You lead the five. In the majority of cards, if you lead the 5, you will get at least 1 go. You may even pair their next lead. There are only a few combinations in which you will not get a go.

If your opponent is playing defensively, lead the 5 as he will be unlikely to pair it. But he may well play a 10-card which you can then pair for 2 points.

Replying to the lead

As there are so few cards played in a hand of cribbage, strategy is important with each play. Your choice of reply to the opponent's lead can be critical.

Never play a 6 to a led 4, or vice versa. This leads to a nasty sting as your opponent slaps down a 5, for five points (4-6-5 run and 15). It is a common mistake in cribbage strategy to set up runs for your opponent. Unless you've got a plan up your sleeve, of course...
Get rid of your higher cards first, as they will be a liability when the count approaches 31. Save Aces - they are your emergency escape strategy to turn a point-losing 30 into a 2-point-winning 31 (but get rid of lone aces - see below).
Do not pair your opponent's card unless you also hold another of the same card in reserve. For example, if your opponent plays a 4, you should not reply with a 4 if it is the only 4 you hold - because your opponent is quite likely to have another 4 herself (making a pair royal for 6 points). Conversely, you should encourage your opponent to pair your card when you yourself hold a pair. The chances of her holding the fourth card to make double pair royal (12 points) are minimal.
When holding two cards that together make 5 (for example 4 and Ace), lead one of them. Your opponent is likely to play a 10 onto it, enabling you to make 15.
Watch for runs! Don't play a card with a value 1 or 2 away from your opponent's card - for example a 9 on a 7 - as he is likely to complete the run. The exception, of course, is when you hold the necessary card to extend the run yourself and top your opponent's points. Beware of 'banging your head' on 31, though - calculate beforehand whether you will be able to play onto the run without going over 31.

Play your 5s early

If you hold 5s, play them as early as you can to avoid them being trapped. For example, if you hold 5-J-Q-K and your opponent holds 3-6-7-8, the play might go like this. You lead one of the ten-cards; opponent replies with 8, hoping you will play another ten-card so that he can make 31 with the 3. If you do, he will reply 6 to your next ten-lead, resulting in: 10 - 6 - 5 - 7 for a three-point run and go. That's a six-point trap which you would do well to avoid. Use this rule: if your opponent does not have a 5-shaped hand (hasn't played any 10s or 5s), your 5 should be a safe lead.

Old Faithful

This is a well-known pegging trap and one that often arises in play. It works against 5-x-x-x hands which are, of course, very common.

Let's say you hold 4-6-6 and your opponent has 5s and ten-cards. You lead the 6; dealer would be foolish to reply with the 5 because of the risk of a 6-5-4 run. So she replies with a ten, making 16. You play 6 bringing the count to 22.

Now dealer can only play her 5, letting you finish with the 4 for a 6-5-4 run and 31, pegging 5 points in all.

Dump the lone ace

Cribbage strategy expert and tournament champion Mike Burns advises players to get rid of a single ace as quickly as possible to avoid having it 'trapped' - when your opponent forces you to play out the ace and scores a go. On the other hand, aces can be extremely valuable as tens are the most common cards, and 30 is a common point count to make. Use your best judgment and let the board position determine when you should play defensively or aggressively.

Magic eleven

Ten-cards (court cards which all count 10) are by far the most common cards in the pack, and this affects your strategy. If you hold a combination of two or three cards that add up to 11, this can earn you extra points in the pegging. For example, if you hold a 6-5, you might play it like this:

Opponent: Q (10)
You: 5 (15-2)
Opponent: J (25-2)
You: 6 (31-2)

This combination is known as a 'magic eleven', and is a useful guide when facing a difficult discard. Hold on to combinations of cards which make eleven, especially when defending.

The jack

The jack is the second most common card to hold after a 5. The extra point that a jack can earn you makes it the favourite among all ten-cards. Knowing this, play your jacks carefully and at the right time. You don't want your opponent to pair your jack, so it makes sense to play it only when bringing the total to 22 or more - playing the jack to make 21 would invite your opponent to pair it for 4 points.

The exception is when you hold a pair of jacks, in which case the jack makes an excellent lead, and if your opponent does pair it, you score 6 points for the pair royal and most likely one for the go.

Rules of thumb to remember:

Dump one jack (making 22 or more, preventing it from being paired)
Hold two jacks, reserving them for a 6-point play

Play the man, not the hand

Vary your play. Your opponent is certainly familiar with these rules of cribbage strategy as well, unless he is a novice, and will be expecting you to make the obvious plays. Don't follow these suggestions slavishly - play an unusual card every so often. At the least it will make your opponent stop and think - you may be up to something. Or not. Either way, it 'breaks flow' - the equivalent of taking your opponent 'out of the book' at Chess.
Conversely, study your opponent's cribbage strategy. Is he stuck in a set of unbreakable habits? Does he always lead from a pair, make 11 or discard the same kind of cards? The less he varies his play, the sooner you can pin down his habits of play, and exploit them.
Think about the cards your opponent plays. Remember that when discarding you generally attempt to maximise the points in your hand by keeping combinations that make 15, or pairs. If your opponent lays an 8, chances are he has a 7 to go with it. If he plays an Ace, expect to see a 4 coming out sooner or later (and a ten-card). By the second card you should have a fair idea of the remaining two cards your opponent holds, and his strategy for this hand.
Your opponent will be doing the same! If you have an 'odd' card - one that is not part of a 15 or a pair - play it first, to throw your opponent off the scent and put off revealing your hand as long as possible.

Board strategy and positional play

One of the key principles of every strong cribbage player's strategy is understanding how the average hand scores affect play. On average, the dealer scores 16.2 points a hand, and pone scores 10.15. So all other things being equal, the first dealer should win the game on the 10th hand.

Because the privilege of counting first alternates between the two players, careful manipulation of the score can put you in a position to count first at the right time and win. Let's see how.

After each hand the players can, on average, expect to have reached a certain hole on the board. These are known as the 'par' holes or positional holes. Here are the values for each player:

Positional hole table

Deal	Dealer	Non-dealer
1	7	17
2	17	33
3	33	43
4	43	59
5	59	69
6	69	85
7	85	95
8	95	111
9	111	121
10	121	-

What this means is that if you are achieving par with each hand, you should win. If you can prevent your opponent from reaching hers, you should win. So how do you do this?

Playing on and playing off

Playing on means playing aggressively to get points, even if it means letting your opponent win some too. Playing off is the opposite: you go all-out to prevent your opponent scoring, even if it means giving up some points yourself. When you are below par, you need to play on to get as many points as possible. Otherwise, the balance of probabilities means that your opponent will win. Conversely, if you are ahead of par, your main priority is to stop the opponent making par, and so you play off.

The reason for this is that making par effectively shortens the game by one hand. Or to put it another way, if you are behind par, you will not score first at the moment when you should be within reach of victory. This effectively hands the game to your opponent. Learn the positional holes (perhaps marking them with tape on your board) and check them before every hand to determine whether you should be playing on or off.

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Cribbage strategy